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Global Risk Report 2025: A Fragmented World
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The World Economic Forum has just released its long-awaited Global Risks Report 2025, or Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) in its original language, offering a comprehensive perspective on the challenges facing the world in the coming years. Based on the perceptions of more than 900 experts from around the world, the study highlights the most pressing risks we face, categorizing them into short (2025), medium (up to 2027) and long term (up to 2035) time horizons. The report paints a worrying picture of a future marked by growing geopolitical tensions, social fragmentation and increasingly urgent environmental risks.
In 2025, the global outlook looks increasingly fractured on several fronts. The report highlights a decline in optimism, with the majority of respondents (52%) anticipating an unstable global scenario over the next two years (Figure A). Even more worryingly, 62% of respondents expect turbulent or stormy times in a 10-year perspective, reflecting skepticism about the ability of current institutions to manage emerging risks.
This gloomy outlook reflects a world that has witnessed the expansion and escalation of conflicts, a multitude of extreme weather events amplified by climate change, widespread social and political polarization and technological advances that facilitate the spread of disinformation.
One of the most alarming aspects of the report is the escalation of geopolitical tensions. Armed conflict between states is now ranked as the top current risk by 23% of respondents (Figure B), a risk that didn't even figure among the top risks in the report two years ago. This drastic change reflects a world that has seen an increase in the number of armed conflicts over the last decade, with national security considerations increasingly dominating government agendas.
The report warns of the growing danger of unilateralism in national security considerations and highlights the worsening humanitarian impacts of ongoing conflicts. The destabilizing consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as well as conflicts in the Middle East and Sudan, are singled out as factors that amplify respondents' concerns beyond 2025. These situations generate devastating humanitarian impacts, as well as affecting the global supply of energy and food resources.
Geo-economic tensions are manifested through economic sanctions, trade disputes and a resurgence of protectionism. Supply chains are impacted, production costs are rising and financial market volatility is accentuated, and the absence of international cooperation could further deepen economic and social challenges.
Social fractures are identified as central to the overall risk landscape. Inequality (of wealth and income) is increasing globally, driven by factors such as persistent inflation, the housing crisis and job insecurity; it is perceived as the most central risk of all (Figure D), playing a significant role in both triggering and influencing other risks. It contributes to the weakening of trust and the diminishing of our collective sense of shared values.
In developed countries, the cost of living crisis has led to increased pressure on public services and a reduction in the purchasing power of the middle class. In developing countries, the lack of access to basic resources such as water and energy remains a critical problem.
Other social risks, such as social polarization, involuntary migration or displacement and the erosion of human rights and/or civil liberties, also figure among the top 10 two-year risks. This emphasis on social risks suggests that social stability will be fragile over the next two years.
The impacts of environmental risks have worsened in intensity and frequency since the launch of the Report. The outlook for environmental risks over the next decade is alarming, with all the risks in the survey expected to worsen in severity from the two-year to the 10-year horizon.
Extreme weather events are anticipated to be an even greater concern than at present, taking first place in the list of 10-year risks for the second year running. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse take second place on the 10-year horizon, with a significant deterioration compared to their two-year ranking, threatening food security and human health.
Indeed, the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, floods and hurricanes, has caused significant damage to infrastructure, economies and communities.
In addition to natural disasters, the transition to a low-carbon economy brings financial and social challenges. The costs of decarbonization can exacerbate inequalities, putting pressure on economies dependent on fossil fuels. The lack of investment in renewable energy and sustainable infrastructure exacerbates the problem, making global collaboration essential to mitigate these impacts.
The report also warns of the risk of "greenwashing", where companies and governments promote environmental initiatives without a real commitment to sustainability. This can undermine public trust and slow down the progress needed to mitigate climate change.
Disinformation has emerged as one of the main challenges to social and political stability, becoming the top risk in 2027 (Figure C) for the second year running. The use of AI to create and disseminate false information is undermining trust in institutions and deepening polarization. Generative AI, in particular, enables the creation of deepfakes and manipulation campaigns that make it difficult to distinguish between fact and fiction.
Technological risks are not limited to disinformation. Issues such as cybersecurity, critical dependence on digital systems and the lack of effective regulation for new technologies pose serious challenges. A cyberattack on essential infrastructure, such as power grids or financial systems, could have catastrophic consequences.
The report also points to the growing threat of cybercrime, with increasingly sophisticated ransomware attacks affecting both companies and governments. The need for robust regulations and international cooperation to mitigate these threats is becoming increasingly urgent.
The report concludes with an urgent call to action. Deepening divisions and increasing fragmentation are reshaping international relations and questioning whether existing structures are equipped to collectively face the challenges that confront us.
Levels of global cooperation in many areas of geopolitics and humanitarian issues, economic relations and environmental, social and technological challenges may reach new lows in the coming years. Key countries appear to be turning inwards, focusing on growing domestic economic or social concerns, precisely when they should be seeking to strengthen multilateral ties to tackle shared challenges.
The decade ahead will be crucial as leaders are confronted with increasingly complex global risks. To avoid a downward spiral in which citizens around the world will be worse off than before, there is no option but to find ways of dialoguing and collaborating.
The Global Risks Report 2025 therefore reinforces the importance of collaboration between governments, companies and civil society to tackle the interconnected challenges that threaten global stability.
Some of the recommended measures include:
Without decisive action, vulnerabilities will continue to grow, jeopardizing the economic and social progress achieved so far.
The Global Risks Report 2025 serves as a crucial wake-up call for leaders, policymakers and citizens around the world. It presents a future full of challenges, but also offers the opportunity to act now to mitigate these risks.
As we navigate this uncertain terrain, it is imperative that nations, organizations and individuals work together to tackle these global threats. International cooperation, innovative policies and a commitment to sustainability and equity will be key to shaping a safer and more prosperous future for all.
The report is not just a warning, but a call to action. It is up to us, as a global community, to respond to this call and work tirelessly to build a more resilient, equitable and sustainable world. The time to act is now, before it's too late.
Sílvia Sousa
Product & Brand Manager, Nextbitt
